COMPLESSITA’, SCENARI, RISCHIO
Per cercare di capire un mondo sempre più complesso servono nuove capacità di analisi. Con sullo sfondo la guerra in Ucraina, che si impone come risultato di una inaccettabile aggressione, di un passato che non passa e terminale di scelte strategiche (da tutti operate) focalizzate unicamente sul business e non anche sulla politica (particolarmente negli ultimi tre decenni), osserviamo come i leader di molti Paesi siano “prigionieri” di un pericoloso auto-inganno, assai profittevole in una economia di guerra: la corsa al riarmo. Non siamo ingenui al punto da non sapere che tale corsa è consustanziale a una fase della globalizzazione come l’attuale.
L’unico leader capace di parlare fuori dal “cappio” degli interessi è sicuramente Papa Francesco: egli, infatti, ha un Magistero che definiamo “profondamente pragmatico”.
Mentre gli altri leader pongono al primo posto la difesa e la sicurezza oltre il limite dell’ordinaria necessità, Francesco scrive, attraverso le sue parole, i capitoli di un “progetto di civiltà”. Egli ci invita, senza dirlo, a praticare ciò che chiamiamo “de-esclation” che altro non è se non il bisogno di ri-trovare la cooperazione nella competizione. Siamo, invece, nel pieno della perennità della paura che porta le classi dirigenti a dover esasperare le tensioni, a elevare l’asticella della difesa non si sa fino a dove.
In prospettiva, però, se vogliamo tendere a un mondo sostenibile, la competizione esasperata per la difesa e per la sicurezza, che ci sta portando fin nello spazio, mette in pericolo tutto ciò che “gli Occidenti” vorrebbero difendere: il valore della democrazia e della libertà.
Già da ben prima della pandemia e della guerra in Ucraina, infatti, le democrazie liberali erano in profonda crisi de-generativa. E questa non è migliorata, anzi. Ciò che è successo a Capitol Hill non può passare nel dimenticatoio. La de-escalation, per concludere, è una scelta che non riguarda solo l’industria delle armi: essa riguarda la volontà, o meno, di scegliere un certo tipo di mondo, non privo di interessi di potenza ma capace di mediarli nel dialogo (pensiamo alla partita strategica tra democrazie e autocrazie) e ri-fondato sulla base di visioni politiche di civiltà. Come direbbe il Maestro Fabrizio De André, ciò che accade oggi sembra andare in direzione ostinata e contraria.
(di Marco Emanuele)
- AROUND THE WORLD
- DEFENSE – MILITARY – SECURITY – CYBER
- RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact, reactions, consequences)
AROUND THE WORLD
- Burkina Faso’s ex-pres Compaore sentenced to life in prison over Sankara murder, April 6. By Thiam Ndiaga, Reuters. Burkina Faso’s former president Blaise Compaore was sentenced to life imprisonment for complicity in the 1987 murder of his predecessor Thomas Sankara in a coup, a military tribunal ruled on Wednesday. (read more)
China – Tibet
- How China’s Authorities Aim to Control Tibetan Reincarnation, April 6. By Sophie Richardson, HRW. Despite draconian controls on the flow of information between Tibet and the outside world, word recently emerged of the death of an 86-year-old lama named Tulku Dawa in Lhasa, and attempts by the Chinese government to keep it secret. (read more)
- Crimes against Humanity and Ethnic Cleansing in Ethiopia’s Western Tigray Zone, April 6. By HRW. (read more)
Europe – USA
- Banning Dark Patterns – Far From a Light Task, April 5. By Maricarmen Martinez, Gabriel Delsol, CEPA. Dark patterns have emerged as a major issue on both sides of the Atlantic. In Europe, the European Parliament has called for a ban in the Digital Services Act (DSA), while in the US, lawmakers at the state and federal levels are experimenting with proposals to end the practice. (read more)
- The potential side benefits of a revived JCPOA for Middle East stability, April 5. By Barbara Slavin, Atlantic Council. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is a nuclear deal that trades sanctions relief for verifiable curbs on Iran’s nuclear activities. But the JCPOA is also the key to regional de-escalation between Iran and its Arab rivals across the Persian Gulf. Without it, tensions are likely to rise, including threats to US forces in Iraq and Syria. (read more)
DEFENSE – MILITARY – SECURITY – CYBER
- Securing Asia’s Subsea Network: U.S. Interests and Strategic Options, April 5. By Matthew P. Goodman, CSIS. More than 1 million kilometers of submarine cables traversing the ocean floor, each about as wide as a garden hose, transmit up to 99 percent of international data, underpinning global trade and communication. This vital digital infrastructure faces myriad threats, from earthquakes and typhoons to fishing nets and saboteurs. The United States derives significant advantages from its centrality in Asia’s subsea cables, which contribute up to $169 billion to the U.S. economy annually and could benefit more U.S. workers and businesses as demand for digital products and services grows globally. But realizing those benefits will require the United States to step up its policy engagement on Asia’s cable networks, which are changing with China’s rise, the emergence of new regional hubs, and new transpacific routes designed to reduce risks and increase network resiliency. (read more)
- U.S. Treasury Department sanctions darkweb marketplace Hydra Market, April 6. By Pierluigi Paganini, Security Affairs. The U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned the darkweb marketplace Hydra Market, the same day Germany’s Federal Criminal Police Office, the Bundeskriminalamt (BKA), announced they have shut down the illegal platform. (read more)
- South Korea’s president-elect wants U.S. nuclear bombers, submarines to return, April 6. By Hyonhee Shin, Reuters. Advisers to South Korea’s president-elect sought redeployment of U.S. strategic assets, such as nuclear bombers and submarines, to the Korean peninsula during talks held on a visit to Washington, one of the advisers said on Wednesday. (read more)
RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact, reactions, consequences)
- Clear Evidence of War Crimes, April 5. By CSIS. CSIS Khosravi Chair and Human Rights Initiative director, Marti Flacks, joins the podcast to discuss the latest evidence of war crimes committed against civilians by Russian forces in Bucha, Ukraine, and the U.S. and European response. (read more)
- Foreign Volunteers in Ukraine: Warfighters or Propaganda Tools?, April 5. By Mark F. Cancian, CSIS. Amid much fanfare, Ukraine established a legion of foreign volunteers to help the Ukrainian people repel the Russian invasion. It seemed a logical complement to the sanctions and weapons deliveries already implemented by NATO and the international community. However, the reality was disappointing, with most volunteers sent home and further accessions limited to those with prior military experience. What can history tell us about successful foreign volunteer efforts? The answer is that some combination of screening, training, discipline, and organization are needed to produce a militarily useful force. (read more)
- 10 Ways to Boost NATO’s Black Sea Defenses, April 5. by Lauren Speranza, Ben Hodges, CEPA. More than a month into Russia’s latest and biggest unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, Western leaders are mulling how to remedy the situation. At an emergency summit in Brussels last month, NATO heads of state agreed to send more short-term aid to Ukraine, including air defenses, drones, cyber assistance, and protective CBRN equipment. More than a month into Russia’s latest and biggest unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, Western leaders are mulling how to remedy the situation. At an emergency summit in Brussels last month, NATO heads of state agreed to send more short-term aid to Ukraine, including air defenses, drones, cyber assistance, and protective CBRN equipment. (read more)
- As Reality Bites, Putin Only Left With Bad Options, April 4. By Edward Lucas, CEPA. Within the next five weeks, Vladimir Putin must contrive something to celebrate at his country’s most important patriotic holiday: May 9th, which marks the Soviet defeat of Nazi Germany in 1945. (read more)
- Supping With the Kremlin Devil: the Red Cross Dilemma, April 5. By Aaron Clements-Hunt, CEPA. As Russia’s onslaught on Ukraine escalated last month, the President of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), Peter Maurer, visited Moscow. During two days of talks, Maurer met, amongst others, Sergey Lavrov, Putin’s lugubrious Minister of Foreign Affairs.(read more)
- Russia’s Sovereign Internet Takes Root, April 5. By CEPA. As Russia sends tanks and soldiers to take over Ukraine, it is also dispatching censors and regulators to strangle the Internet. In this special series by the Center for European Policy Analysis, The New Iron Curtain, Senior Fellows Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan argue that both invasions are linked and represent the culmination of more than a decade-long trend to throttle the free and open flow of information in Russia. (read more)
- Pope kisses Ukrainian flag, condemns ‘the massacre of Bucha’, April 6. By Philip Pullella, Reuters. Pope Francis on Wednesday condemned “the massacre of Bucha” and kissed a Ukrainian flag sent from the town where tied bodies shot at close range littered the streets after Russian troops withdrew and bodies poked out of a mass grave at a church. (read more)
- Russian forces pound key cities as Ukraine demands tougher sanctions, April 6. By Natalia Zinets and Conor Humphries, Reuters. Artillery pounded key cities in Ukraine on Wednesday, as its president urged the West to act decisively in imposing new and tougher sanctions being readied against Russia in response to civilian killings widely condemned as war crimes. (read more)
- U.S., allies to ban investments in Russia, sanction banks, April 6. By Andrea Shalal and Nandita Bose, Reuters. The United States and its allies will target Russian banks and officials with a “sweeping package” of sanctions on Wednesday and ban new investment in Russia, the White House said, after Washington and Kyiv accused Moscow of committing war crimes in Ukraine. (read more)