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Cyber Security, Digital Transition, Technology Geopolitics & Worlds In-Defense In-Security Pensiero Strategico

Open newsletter – march 31, 2022 a.m.

IL NOSTRO FOCUS E’ LA “GEOSTRATEGIA DEL RISCHIO”

Complessità e rischio

Il rischio legato alle tecnologie disruptive è oggetto di ampio dibattito a livello internazionale. Brookings propone una riflessione sulla difficoltà di rendere compatibili trasparenza, equità e sicurezza dell’intelligenza artificiale con la elaborazione di algoritmi “sostenibili”. Molto dipende dagli obiettivi che si vogliono raggiungere, spesso divergenti. 

Il disegno di legge approvato dal Senato degli Stati Uniti sulla necessità di maggiori investimenti tecnologici per contrastare l’avanzata cinese e per rafforzare il sistema americano è di grande importanza (IndustryWeek). Non vi è dubbio che, in questa fase, i Paesi cerchino di investire sulla propria resilienza. La fase di transizione nella quale si trova l’interrelazione sistemica planetaria (l’attuale fase della globalizzazione) può essere molto rischiosa: vediamo, infatti, fortissime spinte autarchiche in una competizione selvaggia. Tutto questo ha come conseguenza di allontanare le economie, sostanzialmente tradendo quell’approccio multilaterale che molti richiamano come necessario. Il decoupling delle economie va chiaramente in questa direzione. Complice la guerra in Ucraina, ma già da molto tempo, ci troviamo a fare i conti con questo fenomeno: stiamo entrando in una sorta di de-globalizzazione o si stanno riconfigurando i rapporti di potenza (ri-globalizzazione) ? Qualunque sia la risposta, tutto questo minaccia la stabilità del mondo, in una fase nella quale il rischio energetico e, soprattutto, il rischio alimentare rischiano di colpire al cuore la sopravvivenza dell’umanità (in particolare dei Paesi più poveri) e del pianeta. 

Il tema delle catene di approvvigionamento è decisivo. Christopher S. Tang ne scrive in termini molto realistici per IndustryWeek. Tang descrive gli effetti devastanti che stanno derivando, e che deriveranno, dalla rottura delle global supply chains e argomenta sulla necessità di supply chains regionali. Così scrive: “The current crisis exposed the vulnerability of global supply chains, but it presents an excellent opportunity for developing regional supply chains that are more resilient. It’s about time”. Il tema è aperto. 

Importante è il tema del rischio associato alle criptovalute, non solo rispetto alla trasformazione del sistema finanziario che conosciamo ma, in particolare, rispetto agli impatti ambientali, sociali e di governance. Ne scrive Morgan Stanley

Dal punto di vista geopolitico ci preoccupa la situazione di Taiwan, laddove – con gli USA – si studiano le tattiche di guerra ucraine (Reuters). Sandra Oudkirk, direttore dell’American Institute in Taiwan, ha parlato chiaro circa le intenzioni USA di aiutare direttamente Taiwan a difendersi (Reuters): scelta rischiosa, in nome della democrazia. Crescono, intanto, le tensioni tra USA e Iran per le ultime sanzioni imposte dall’amministrazione americana (Reuters). Nella regione irachena di Bassora, problemi irrisolti rischiano di aumentare l’instabilità in Iraq e in Medio Oriente (Carnegie Middle East Center), In Cina, il ministro degli Esteri russo ha lanciato l’allarme sulla possibile insorgenza dello Stato Islamico e sul rischio instabilità in Asia Centrale (Reuters). Intorno alla penisola coreana si sviluppano esercitazioni militari tra USA e Corea del Sud (Reuters).

TODAY:

  • AROUND THE WORLD (evolving worlds, ongoing relations, crisis, conflicts)
  • CRYPTOCURRENCY
  • DEFENSE – MILITARY
  • ON LIFE (technology, the future of the internet, cybersecurity, data)
  • RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact, reactions, consequences)

 

AROUND THE WORLD (evolving worlds, ongoing relations, crisis, conflicts)

Afghanistan

Central Asia

Iraq

Israel – Palestine

South Africa

  • Lessons from the Cape Town water crisis and the need for a renewed technical agenda, March 30. Cape Town, South Africa faced a crippling drought between 2016 and 2018. The widely reported “Day Zero” crisis, wherein the city faced the real possibility of the taps being turned off, presented an acute shock and highlighted major vulnerabilities in the city’s water supply system, which relies largely on six large dams. Due to a combination of demand incentives, intensive supply management, and behavioral change campaigns, Cape Town was able to avert “Day Zero.” However, the crisis provided a number of useful lessons and exposed the critical need for a water system rooted in principles of resilience and a renewed technical approach to water management aimed at equity, sustainability, and water sensitivity. (read more)

Taiwan

  • U.S. says China’s pressure on Taiwan a threat to all democracies, March 31. By Reuters. China’s diplomatic and military pressure on Taiwan represents a threat to all democracies and the United States is committed to helping the island defend itself, the top U.S. diplomat in Taipei said. Speaking at an American Chamber of Commerce in Taiwan event late on Wednesday, Sandra Oudkirk, director of the American Institute in Taiwan which handles relations in the absence of formal diplomatic ties, said managing U.S. differences with China faces “distinct challenges”. (read more)
  • Taiwan studying Ukraine war tactics, discussing with U.S., March 31. By Reuters. Taiwan’s defence ministry has set up a working group to study the tactics of the war in Ukraine, including how the country has been able to hold out against Russia, and has been discussing this with the United States, its minister said on Thursday. (read more)

USA

USA – Algeria

USA – India

USA – Iran

Yemen

CRYPTOCURRENCY

  • ESG and Crypto: Weighing The Pros and Cons, March 25. By Morgan Stanley. The growing popularity of cryptocurrency has created a new wrinkle for investors—how to balance its potential upside against its inherent environmental and social impacts. A look at both sides of the issue. (read more)

DEFENSE – MILITARY

  • U.S., S.Korea seen resuming major military drills as N.Korea tensions rise. March 31. By and , Reuters. Joint South Korean and U.S. military drills set to kick off next month could for the first time in years include more weaponry and troops, and more aggressive messaging as tensions with North Korea rise. Neither the South Korean or U.S. militaries have confirmed what this year’s annual drills may entail, but a recent series of unusual displays of military might in and around the Korean peninsula suggest a more muscular show could be in the works, analysts said. (read more)

ON LIFE (technology, the future of the internet, cybersecurity, data)

  • Better understanding of data lifecycles can reduce digital harms March 30. By Jordan Famularo, Brookings. If we are ever to address effectively the harms and risks of digital technology, we first need the right language to describe the systems that collect, analyze, share, and store huge amounts of data about us as consumers, patients, and citizens—often with deleterious effects. Misinformation, attention extraction, discriminatory algorithmic profiling, and cybercrime: These digital harms all emerge from the data ecosystem in which we live, but not in ways we can fully see or explain. (read more)
  • Six Steps to Responsible AI in the Federal Government, March 30. By Darrell M. West, Brookings. There is widespread agreement that responsible artificial intelligence requires principles such as fairness, transparency, privacy, human safety, and explainability. Nearly all ethicists and tech policy advocates stress these factors and push for algorithms that are fair, transparent, safe, and understandable. But it is not always clear how to operationalize these broad principles or how to handle situations where there are conflicts between competing goals. It is not easy to move from the abstract to the concrete in developing algorithms and sometimes a focus on one goal comes at the detriment of alternative objectives. (read more)
  • Race is On to Remove Lead Pipes from Under the US, March 29. By Christa Campbell, Esri. New federal rules aimed at ridding US drinking water of lead contamination has cities and states hurrying to find and replace millions of lead service lines across the country. Key Takeaways: – New lead and copper replacement guidelines require water utilities across the US to inventory all service lines; – Working from outdated or missing information, operators are using GIS to collect and share accurate data;  – Real-time GIS maps and dashboards keep contractors on track and the public informed. (read more)
  • Sondaggio su Industria 4.0: la maggior parte delle aziende è ancora ai blocchi di partenza, March 30. By ImpresaCity. Secondo un sondaggio di YouGov per conto dell’istituto di ricerca Handelsblatt e TeamViewer soltanto meno di un quarto delle aziende europee intervistate (23%) ha iniziato la trasformazione digitale dei processi di produzione. (read more)

RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact, reactions, consequences)