Giudizio storico Pensiero Strategico Progetto di civiltà

Per una glocalità sostenibile – For a sustainable glocality

Il paradigma culturale del pensiero complesso, necessario per governare società aperte fondate sul “comune” nel framework della “glocalità”, deve accompagnarsi alla maturazione di un “giudizio storico” il più possibile condiviso.

Cercheremo di approfondire le dinamiche che si sono sviluppate dalla caduta del muro di Berlino e dalla implosione dell’Unione Sovietica a oggi. In questo periodo, come tanti autori hanno notato, il mondo si è trasformato in maniera irreversibile in diversi campi. Ciò che non si è visto, non avendo lavorato sul suo ri-pensamento per la rifondazione, è la politica.

Guardando all’oggi, troviamo molto interessante la definizione di Ian Bremmer (Il potere della crisi, 2022) di un mondo G-zero il che genera quella che l’Autore chiama recessione geopolitica. Questo diventa ancora più interessante se lo leghiamo alla megacrisi in atto e alla incapacità delle classi dirigenti nazionali e multilaterali di anticipare i fenomeni per governarli. Ciò che oggi chiamiamo politica si limita ad amministrare ex post le dinamiche storiche, mai riuscendo a prevenirle. Il pensiero complesso, qui evocato, serve ad abituarci culturalmente alla megacrisi per permetterci di costruire una glocalità sostenibile.

La maturazione di un giudizio storico adeguato è il passaggio che lega il paradigma culturale del pensiero complesso al paradigma politico. Per avere una visione politica del mondo occorre rendere inter-in-dipendenti le esperienze dei mondi che viviamo.

Così facendo, i nostri mondi, nelle loro complessità, diventano decisivi per impostare ciò che chiamiamo “glocalizzazione”. Negli ultimi decenni, quelli che analizziamo in termini di giudizio storico, ciò che non si è fatto, e che ha reso il mondo politicamente instabile, è la mediazione tra flussi globali ed esigenze territoriali, l’investimento in realistiche società aperte: la globalizzazione senza politica ma nell’autoregolamentazione (illusoria) dei mercati ha contribuito a rafforzare i desideri di autarchia e ha alzato pericolosamente il livello di una competizione strategica che oggi è diventata pericolosa anche per  la nostra sicurezza.

English version

The cultural paradigm of complex thought, necessary to govern open societies founded on the “common” within the framework of “glocality”, must be accompanied by the maturation of a “historical judgment”.

We will try to investigate the dynamics that have developed since the fall of the Berlin wall and the implosion of the Soviet Union to date. In this period, as many authors have noted, the world has irreversibly transformed in various fields. What has not been seen, having not worked on its re-thinking for re-foundation, is politics.

Looking at today, we find Ian Bremmer’s (The Power of Crisis, 2022) definition of a G-zero world very interesting, which generates what the author calls a geopolitical recession. This becomes even more interesting if we link it to the megacrisis in progress and to the inability of the national and multilateral ruling classes to anticipate phenomena in order to govern them. What we now call politics limits itself to administering historical dynamics ex post, never managing to prevent them. The complex thought, evoked here, serves to understand the megacrisis and to allow us to build a sustainable glocality.

The maturation of an adequate historical judgment is the passage that links the cultural paradigm of complex thought to the political paradigm. To have a political vision of the world it is necessary to make inter-in-dependent the experiences of the worlds we live in.

In doing so, our worlds, in their complexities, become decisive for setting what we call “glocalization”. In recent decades, that we analyze in terms of historical judgment, what has not been done, and which has made the world politically unstable, is the mediation between global flows and territorial needs, investment in realistic open societies: globalization without politics but in the (illusory) self-regulation of the markets has contributed to strengthening the desire for autarky and has dangerously raised the level of a strategic competition that today has become dangerous even for our security.

Riflessioni collegate


Around the world: China, Europe-China, Indonesia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Russia-Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, South Pacific, Sri Lanka, USA

Topics: Cybersecurity, Defense-Intelligence-Military-Security-Space, Digital & Tech, Health & Digital, Global 



  • July 23, 2022. Martin Miszerak, East Asia Forum. In May 2022, China’s Vice Premier Liu He signalled the government’s intention to end its ‘regulatory rectification’ campaign — a raft of regulations imposed on the education, ride-sharing and technology sectors. He is the top economic advisor to Chinese President Xi Jinping — so his message must have been approved by Xi, who seems to have finally awoken to the damage the year-long crackdown has wrought on investor sentiment. China’s entrepreneurial capitalism faces a grim future



  • July 25, 2022. Johannes Nugroho, The Interpreter. When Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo first came to office in 2014, many pundits had doubts about his capacity for foreign policy, especially when compared to his predecessor, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who had championed Indonesia joining the G20. It was suggested that Jokowi, as the President is popularly known, might leave major foreign policy initiatives to “key advisers”. Jokowi adopts a statesman style
  • July 25, 2022. , The Strategist. When Indonesian President Joko Widodo visits his country’s three major North Asian economic partners this week, bilateral trade and investment, along with the upcoming G20 leaders’ summit in Bali, are set to head his list of priorities. But whether he likes it or not, they are unlikely to be the only topics on the minds of his principal interlocutors, especially China’s President Xi Jinping. What to expect from Widodo’s visits to China, Japan and South Korea


  • July 25, 2022. UN News. The independent UN human rights expert for Myanmar called for a strong international response on Monday following the executions of four pro-democracy activists by the country’s military junta. In a statement issued later in the day, UN human rights chief Michelle Bachelet said she was “dismayed” that despite appeal from across the world, military leaders had move ahead with “no regard” for international rights law.  Myanmar junta’s execution of four democracy activists condemned by UN


  • July 23, 2022. Sushant Sareen, ORF. The bye-elections to 20 Punjab Assembly seats on 17 July have sent shockwaves through Pakistan’s fragile political and economic system. It would be an understatement to claim that the results were entirely unexpected. On the eve of the elections, there was virtually a consensus amongst political pundits that the ruling Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PMLN) would win a majority of the seats going to the polls. The only argument was about the scale and margin of victory. But contrary to predictions of the pundits, the PMLN has been routed—it has managed to win only four out of the 20 seats. The former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who was ousted in a no-confidence motion in April last, has made a stunning comeback, winning 15 seats, many of these with significant margins. Not surprisingly, Imran is claiming he now has the people’s mandate to back his demand for an early general election. Pakistan: Aftermath of a destabilising verdict


  • July 24, 2022. Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, Layne Philipson, George Barros and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. Ukrainian officials are increasingly acknowledging Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in Kherson Oblast.Kherson Oblast Administration Advisor Serhiy Khlan stated on July 24 that Ukrainian forces are undertaking unspecified counteroffensive actions in Kherson Oblast. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on July 23 that Ukrainian forces are advancing “step by step” in Kherson Oblast. His statement does not make clear whether he is referring to small, ongoing Ukrainian advances in Kherson Oblast or a broader counteroffensive. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported on July 24 that Ukrainian forces are firing on Russian transport facilities in Kherson Oblast to impede maneuverability and logistics support. This activity is consistent with support to an active counteroffensive or conditions-setting for an upcoming counteroffensive. Khlan also said that Ukrainian strikes on Russian-controlled bridges around Kherson City only aim to prevent Russian forces from moving equipment into the city without stopping food and other essential supplies from entering the city. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 24

Saudi Arabia

  • July 25, 2022. Aniruddha Sharma, ORF. A transformation is sweeping Saudi Arabia, and certain elements of it can be attributed to ‘Vision 2030’, a strategic plan launched in 2016. The vision—framed by a paradigm shift in the country’s economic, social, and cultural landscape—will have implications beyond Saudi Arabia itself, given the country’s position as leader of the Arab and Islamic world. The biggest challenge to such a metamorphosis is adoption among citizens, who will experience the biggest impacts of reforms. This report underlines the principles of ‘change management’ as means for achieving the most favourable outcomes. Change Management in Societal Transformation: The Case of Saudi Arabia’s ‘Vision 2030’

South Korea

  • July 23, 2022. Christina Dasom Song and Yves Tiberghien, East Asia Forum. South Korea’s new President, Yoon Suk-yeol, has broken from his predecessor’s cautious balancing of Seoul’s trade relationship with China and security alliance with the United States. South Korea joined the Quad Summit in May 2022, signalling its desire to join the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, and recently joined the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF). Domestic realities constrain Yoon’s foreign policy rebalancing

South Pacific

Sri Lanka

  • July 22, 2022. Rishi Gupta, VIF. Sri Lanka has elected six-time former Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe as the new President. In the parliamentary votes Ranil Wickremesinghe received 134 votes against his closest contestant Dullus Alahapperuma got 82 votes. The contest was unique as the Parliament went to elect a new president sans any Rajapaksas in the race after a long time. The Rajapaksas, once invincible, have witnessed their downfall sooner than expected. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa first escaped to Maldives and then to Singapore and resigned through an emailamidst public protest crossing 100 days mark. The Army has reportedly been told to use lethal force in tackling the protestors and safeguarding public property after the Presidential Palace and Office of the House Speaker were ransacked by the protestors. The 31st March protests against President Gotabaya and Prime Minister Mahinda had seen brutal police actions. Then onwards, the island nation has gone through several political phases including the appointment of opposition leader Ranil Wickremesinghe as Prime Minister who also served as acting President after Gotabaya Rajapaksa escaped to Singapore. Now, a State of Emergency has been declared in Sri Lanka. Interestingly, the global media has equated the 9th July mass protests in Sri Lanka, popularly known as “aragalaya” (struggle), with the Arab Spring. The Unmaking and Making of Sri Lankan Crisis: Options before India
  • July 25, 2022. , Project-Syndicate, The Strategist. In a win for democracy, mass protests in Sri Lanka recently led to the resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa. A strongman who won popularity for overseeing the end of Sri Lanka’s civil war in 2009 (while his older brother, Mahinda, was president), Gotabaya was elected in November 2019 and promised to safeguard national security and deliver prosperity. He failed miserably. Sri Lanka’s next test
  • July 25, 2022. Editorial Board, East Asia Forum. Among the few rock-solid rules of international politics is the principle that when the voters are in the presidential swimming pool, it’s time for a change of leadership. After a remarkable popular uprising against a government blamed for an unnecessary economic catastrophe, former president Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled the country and resigned on 14 July. The Rajapaksas, Sri Lanka’s unflushables
  • July 24, 2022. Neil DeVotta, East Asia Forum. On 20 July 2022, Sri Lanka’s parliament voted to make Ranil Wickremasinghe the country’s eighth Executive President until November 2024. That is when Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who fled the island on 13 July, would have completed his term. Gotabaya’s humiliating exit stemmed from ferocious island-wide protests precipitated by Sri Lanka’s worst ever post-independence economic crisis. Colombo’s controversial new president
  • July 24, 2022. Chulanee Attanayake, East Asia Forum. Once the heroes of Sri Lanka who defeated the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, the Rajapaksa regime ended with former president Gotabaya Rajapaksa resigning from his post. He fled the country following nationwide protests and unrest that broke out on 9 July 2022. What lies ahead for Sri Lanka?


  • July 24, 2022. Bob BauerJack Goldsmith, Lawfare. The Electoral Count Reform Act (ECRA) recently introduced by a bipartisan group of senators is an exceptionally promising development in our polarized era. It has been apparent for a long time that the Electoral Count Act (ECA)—the 1887 law designed to ensure that presidential elections operate with integrity, and that this bill would replace—is flawed. These flaws were on full display during the counting of electoral votes in 2020-2021, but all of the flaws had historical precursors. Correcting Misconceptions About the Electoral Count Reform Act
  • July 24, 2022. Irwin J. Mansdorf, JCPA. How can empirical research shed light on issues involving the relationship between Israel and Jewish Americans? More often than not, “conventional wisdom” regarding this relationship has been guided more by a routine of established beliefs, past behavior, and organizational agendas. Further complicating things is the phenomenon of anti-Jewish (antisemitic) acts and how these are presented and portrayed by the media. Our research, of which the following report is the latest example, aims to answer questions based on data instead of conventional suppositions. Data alone, however, are not always framed objectively or accurately, and data can change from time to time. The dynamic nature of data and the events they reflect would thus call for constant vigilance in drawing conclusions. Jewish Americans and Antisemitism: How their Views Compare with the Rest of America



  • July 25, 2022. Chinmayi Sharma, Lawfare. Open source is free software built collaboratively by a community of developers, often volunteers, for public use. Google, iPhones, the national power grid, surgical operating rooms, baby monitors, and military databases all run on this unique asset.  Open-Source Security: How Digital Infrastructure Is Built on a House of Cards
  • July 25, 2022. , Info Security. The UK’s National Crime Agency (NCA) seized millions of pounds’ worth of cryptocurrency last year as part of its efforts to crack down on money laundering and serious and organized crime (SOC). UK Seizes Nearly $27m in Crypto-Assets
  • July 25, 2022. , Info Security. An Oregon-based medical device manufacturer has agreed to pay a multimillion-dollar settlement related to serious healthcare fraud allegations. Medical Device Maker to Pay $13m in False Claims Case
  • July 25, 2022. , Info Security. One of the world’s busiest ports has seen an extraordinary increase in cyber-attacks since the start of the pandemic, according to a new report. Cyber-Attacks on Port of LA Double
  • July 25, 2022. Divyanshu Jindal, The Interpreter. The US cybersecurity firm Mandiant recently issued a fresh warning about an ongoing influence campaign comprising a network of thousands of inauthentic social media accounts. According to Mandiant’s qualitative and circumstantial observation-based investigation, the campaign that the firm has named “Dragonbridge” supports China’s political and strategic interests. Dating back to 2019, the campaign initially focused on discrediting the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong. However, in the years since, the focus has shifted and the agenda has expanded. Recent activities suggest that the campaign is now targeting developments in the rare earth elements domain, where Australia, the United States, India and Japan (the “Quad” countries), as well as Canada and others, are looking to establish supply chains. An element of doubt? Rare earths targeted in disinfo campaign


  • July 25, 2022. Theresa Hitchens, Breaking Defense.  Information technology company SAIC long has had a robust business in supporting the hush-hush world of classified, or “black,” space operations, but the firm now is looking to expand its systems integration business in the so-called “white” world as the Space Force embraces use of large satellite constellations in multiple orbits, according to a senior company official. As US shifts space strategy, SAIC seeks to expand role as space systems integrator, traffic manager
  • July 25, Defense One. Today’s D Brief: HIMARS damage continues vs. Russia; Moscow hates Zelenskyy; Milley, on China; Ellen Lord’s next move; And a bit more
  • July 25, 2022. Emma Schroeder, Gavin Wilde, Justin Sherman, and Trey Herr, Atlantic Council. The first time Russia invaded Ukraine in the twenty-first century, the Wagner Group was born. The now widely profiled private military company (PMC) played an important role in exercising Russian national power over the Crimea and portions of the Donbas—while giving Moscow a semblance of plausible deniability. In the near decade since, the Russian PMC sector has grown considerably, and is active in more than a dozen countries around the world. PMCs are paramilitary organizations established and run as private companies—though they often operate in contract with one or more states. They are profit-motivated, expeditionary groups that make a business of the conduct of war.1 PMCs are in no way a uniquely Russian phenomenon, yet the expanding footprint of Russian PMCs and their links to state interests call for a particularly Russian-focused analysis of the industry. The growth of these firms and their direct links to the Kremlin’s oligarch network as well as Moscow’s foreign media, industrial, and cyber activities present a challenge to the United States and its allies as they seek to counter Russian malicious activities abroad.  Hackers, Hoodies, and Helmets: Technology and the changing face of Russian private military contractors
  • July 22, 2022. Karen Kornbluh, GMF. Russia’s war in Ukraine has pushed the US into a new era in defense of both cybersecurity and the open internet. The US Is Writing a New Digital Doctrine | Strengthening Transatlantic Cooperation
  • July 25, 2022. Arie Egozi, Breaking Defense. As Israel has grown its reputation as an exporter of military unmanned vehicles, the country has still kept a strict rule about not acknowledging the use of its own capabilities — including a legal muzzle censoring any reporting about the use of armed drones. Pressure from industry caused Israel to drop armed drone censorship
  • July 24, 2022.  Raphael S. CohenGian Gentile, Lawfare. There is little debate that the Russian military has underperformed in the war in Ukraine. Many analysts thought the conflict would be over in a matter of days, with minimal Russian military casualties, yet five months later it continues to grind on and has decimated significant portions of Russia’s ground combat power. There are a slew of explanations about why the Russian army has performed so poorly—from deliberate Russian force structure choices to an underestimation of the Ukrainian will to fight—but it is clear that the Russian military has not lived up to expectations. The United States Learned From Iraq and Afghanistan. Russia Didn’t
  • July 25, 2022. Colin Clark, Breaking Defense. At a large dinner here attended by its ambassador and a host of senior acquisition officials, South Korea made clear its eagerness to deepen defense ties with Australia, making the bold offer of building advanced conventional attack submarines in “seven years from signature to delivery.”. South Koreans offer Aussies new subs in 7 years to close Collins gap
  • July 25, 2022. H I Sutton, Naval News. Ballistic missile submarines are at the core of Russia’s strategic nuclear strike capability. Each boat can throw around 100 nuclear warheads thousands of miles in a single salvo. The Borei-A class submarine, Knyaz Vladimir, has now been seen with the famous ‘Z’ marking. Russian Nuclear Missile Submarine Seen With Ukraine Invasion ‘Z’
  • July 25, 2022. Xavier Vavasseur, Naval News. LIG Nex1 and Thales Netherlands have signed a Memorandum of Understand (MOU) on Maintenance, Repair and Operations (MRO) and performance improvement for ship-mounted core weapon systems at the “2022 Farnborough International Airshow” held in London, UK. LIG Nex1 and Thales Ink MOU for Naval Weapon Systems MRO
  • July 23, 2022. Neeraj Singh Manhas, Sameer Patil, ORF. The conflict in Ukraine, western tech sanctions on the Russian aerospace industry and the consequent Russian defence production and supply chain difficulties have once again underscored the need to be self-reliant in the defence sector. India, the world’s third-largest military spender, accounted for almost 11 percent share of the global arms trade (2017 and 2021), primarily importing from Russia, Israel, and France. These arms imports reflect poorly on the Indian defence research ecosystem, which is yet to reach its full potential compared to the other major military powers. The government is undertaking a series of steps to boost the national R&D base by involving the private sector and start-ups. Fostering greater linkages with other countries’ defence R&D ecosystems and innovative funding mechanisms will facilitate these efforts and contribute to an expanded defence-industrial capability. Accelerating the pace of India’s defence research

Digital & Tech 

  • July 25, 2022. Alistair SimmonsJustin Sherman, On June 24, Sens. Ron Wyden, Elizabeth Warren, and Cory Booker and Rep. Sara Jacobs wrote a letter to Lina Khan, the chairperson of the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), requesting that the FTC investigate Apple and Google for some of their online advertising-related activities. Specifically, the members of Congress requested that the FTC look into the companies “engaging in unfair and deceptive practices by enabling the collection and sale of hundreds of millions of mobile phone users’ personal data.” Then, the letter called out data brokers: “[T]hese identifiers have fueled the unregulated data broker market by creating a single piece of information linked to a device that data brokers and their customers can use to link to other data about consumers.”. Data Brokers, Elder Fraud, and Justice Department Investigations

Health & Digital