Categorie
China Taiwan

What’s behind the spike in Chinese incursions into Taiwan’s air defence zone? (Corey Lee Bell, The Strategist)

A problem in recent public commentary on tensions between China and Taiwan has been a conflation of what we know and what we fear. Nowhere is this more evident than on the topic of incursions by Chinese military aircraft into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone, or ADIZ.

This month saw a shift from a pattern of incremental increases in the number of People’s Liberation Army Air Force aircraft participating in coordinated incursions into Taiwanese airspace to an exponential explosion. The campaign peaked at 56 aircraft on 4 October, with 159 over the four-day period of 1–4 October. The increase has prompted concerns that the threat of war across the Taiwan Strait is escalating.

What’s behind the spike in Chinese incursions into Taiwan’s air defence zone? | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)

Categorie
AUKUS Australia

Making the shift to nuclear-powered submarines: safety first (Peter Briggs, The Strategist)

The agreement for Australia to acquire nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs) is the most significant part of the recent AUKUS announcement. The offer of assistance from the United Kingdom and the United States to acquire this capability places us at an excellent starting point for what will be a challenging national journey.

Such a combination of support was inconceivable five years ago when I began publicly agitating for SSNs. Today it is the right strategic decision to meet the changing circumstances facing Australia and its Western allies. It will ensure that our submarine crews have safer, more survivable and hugely more effective submarines.

Making the shift to nuclear-powered submarines: safety first | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)

Categorie
ASEAN Myanmar

ASEAN finds its voice as a military offensive looms in Myanmar (Adam Simpson, The Strategist)

In a move that could usher in a new era of interventionist diplomacy—or, alternatively, represent a grudging aberration driven by realpolitik—ASEAN provided the first significant regional rebuke to Myanmar’s generals since their February coup by politely disinviting them to the upcoming ASEAN Summit.

Historically, ASEAN has been largely toothless in its reaction to human rights abuses in the region, despite shifts in its rhetoric and discourse over the past decade. With the organisation’s mostly timid and laggardly response to the latest Myanmar coup, history seemed to be repeating itself.

ASEAN finds its voice as a military offensive looms in Myanmar | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)

Categorie
Australia

Reaping the social benefits of carbon farming in northern Australia (Gill Savage, The Strategist)

Nation-building can drive economic prosperity, social cohesion and resilience, but we need to engage with the complexity of our modern world to develop pragmatic solutions that address several issues. The temptation to rate one priority higher than another is strong, but we need to avoid binary choices. When it comes to climate policy, that can be challenging.

Reaping the social benefits of carbon farming in northern Australia | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)

Categorie
China USA

US-China: tiers of cohabitation (Ali Wyne, The Interpreter)

As strategic tensions between the United States and China calcify so too does the conclusion that they have entered into “a new Cold War”. Indeed, the strenuousness with which both countries avow that they must avoid such an outcome would only seem to confirm that judgment. One reason the analogy is problematic is that it implies that Washington or Beijing can prevail over the other – a speculation, in turn, that presupposes the ability to conceptualise victory. Given the extent of the two countries’ interdependence and the number of vital interests they share, it is difficult to do so.

US-China: tiers of cohabitation | The Interpreter (lowyinstitute.org)

Categorie
Australia

Australia needs to build total defence in the face of national crises (Joanne Nicholson, Marigold Black and Peter Dortmans, The Strategist)

In Australia, the prevailing view of mobilisation is that it is an activity associated with going to war. In the event of an armed conflict, the nation mobilises to support the Australian Defence Force. Against recent events, including the 2019–20 bushfires and Covid-19 pandemic, the ADF has mobilised to support the nation. As the range of potential hazards now encompasses high-end warfighting, grey-zone conflict, terrorism and organised crime, as well as domestic and offshore natural disasters, no single institution can sufficiently respond on its own.

Australia needs to build total defence in the face of national crises | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)

Categorie
Australia China Taiwan USA

Stronger deterrence will avoid war over Taiwan (Peter Jennings, The Strategist)

Xi Jinping is positioning the People’s Liberation Army to bring Taiwan under the control of the Chinese Communist Party. The Taiwanese assess perhaps a three-year time frame before an attack, while US Indo-Pacific Command in Honolulu considers a military assault in six years to be possible.

If conflict breaks out, it will be large-scale and bloody. It will throw the world into two hostile camps—in effect, the democracies versus the authoritarian regimes. War over Taiwan will inevitably involve Australia.

Stronger deterrence will avoid war over Taiwan | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)

Categorie
Australia USA

Can Australia get second-hand nuclear submarines? The US option (Marcus Hellyer, The Strategist)

In my previous post, I looked at some of the issues involved in the Royal Australian Navy acquiring or leasing older nuclear-powered attack submarines from the UK to jump-start Australia’s own SSN program. In summary, a very small fleet of orphan vessels is a high-risk strategy.

In this article, I’ll look at the US option. Trying to get some of the US Navy’s older boats, the Los Angeles class, might seem like a better bet than the Royal Navy’s Trafalgar class, as there are more of them and, even though they’re progressively being retired, a few at least are probably going to stay in service with the USN for some time.

Can Australia get second-hand nuclear submarines? The US option | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)

Categorie
Myanmar

A Quad-led effort could help the people of Myanmar (Dominic Simonelli, The Strategist)

With ASEAN toeing the line of non-interference, the Quad has its first major opportunity to prove its mettle and help end the violence in Myanmar.

After a brief waltz with democracy, Myanmar once again descended into harsh military rule on 1 February. In the ensuing violence, the military, known as the Tatmadaw, has killed more than 1,100 Burmese, arrested thousands more and forced nearly 250,000 to flee the country. Increasing numbers of people are crossing the border between Myanmar and India to escape persecution, adding to the 980,000 Burmese Rohingya already seeking refuge in nearby countries.

A Quad-led effort could help the people of Myanmar  | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)

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