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Daily Brief Geostrategic thinking

War, technology, diplomacy

Branka Marijan for the Centre for International Governance Innovation writes an interesting analysis of the war in Ukraine as a ‘laboratory’ for the wars of the future.

There are many elements that the author provides. While there is no doubt that technological innovations will transform wars, it is important to dwell on what Marijan writes: One is that warfare is not experiencing the flashy technological transformations that some futurists expected. Instead, changes are incremental and focused. Technology is being tweaked to enable greater access to and sharing of information; sensor-based technologies are appearing in a variety of settings; and operational data is being collected and used to train artificial intelligence (AI) systems.

In an increasingly insecure world, and under increasing militarisation, studying the future of warfare is a strategic element. Pacifism must come to terms with reality and with a military framework of increasing complexity and evolution. The physical world and virtual support are becoming increasingly interrelated and inseparable.

Risks are transformed and, as a result, military action also changes in nature. But, in conclusion, Marijan notes: (…) there is no technological magic wand that will eliminate the hard work needed to rebuild societies after conflicts end. The ideal solution is to do the hard work in advance and prevent conflicts from escalating to armed violence. So far, nothing beats the oldest tool in the toolbox: diplomacy. We totally agree.