Geostrategic magazine

Geostrategic magazine (20 febbraio 2023)

  • Le relazioni tra Regno Unito e Cina a un punto di svolta (The Jamestown Foundation, Matthew Brazil). In early 2018, UK Prime Minister Theresa May visited China with a British business delegation, seeking a free trade deal and expressing optimism over Beijing’s “one country, two systems” formula for governing Hong Kong (Global Times, January 31, 2018; Zaobao, January 31, 2018).  The Lion, the Wolf Warrior and the Crossroads: UK-China Relations at a Turning Point
  • Oltre l’Ucraina: L’invasione russa e il suo impatto sul commercio di armi convenzionali (Stimson Center, Elias Yousif). While the world has been gripped by the unprecedented, multi-billion-dollar military aid effort to Ukraine, another arms boom has already begun that may have even more far-reaching and long-term consequences. Russia’s norm-shattering invasion of its neighbor is leading countries around the world to look more warily at their own security landscapes, catalyzing what is sure to be a massive and potentially risky expansion of the international arms trade. Beyond Ukraine: Russia’s Invasion & Its Impact on the Conventional Arms Trade
  • Putin e gli errori sulla Germania (CFR, Liana Fix, Caroline Kapp). One year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the magnitude of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategic mistake is becoming clearer every day, but one misjudgment stands out: Germany. Putin considered Germany too dependent on Russian energy, too weak militarily, and too business-minded to mount any significant resistance to his war. He was wrong.  One Year After: How Putin Got Germany Wrong
  • Russia-Ucraina. Evoluzione della guerra, 19 febbraio 2023 (ISW,  Karolina Hird and Frederick W. Kagan). The major phase of Russian offensive operations in Luhansk Oblast is underway, and Russia likely lacks sufficient uncommitted reserves to dramatically increase the scale or intensity of the offensive this winter.  Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 19, 2023
  • Russia-Corea del Nord. Armi, petrolio e carbone: l’incrocio ferroviario Tumangang-Khasan (CSIS,  and ).

    Arms, Oil, and Coal: The Tumangang-Khasan Railroad Crossing

  • Decifrare i cambiamenti di paradigma regionale di Erdoğan (Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies). Ofra Bengio analyses the trajectory of Turkish foreign and domestic policies by examining three paradigms in Erdogan’s strategy since the early 2000s.  Deciphering Erdoğan’s Regional Paradigm Shifts
  • Il fenomeno dei terroristi adolescenti palestinesi (JCPA, Yoni Ben Menachem). The phenomenon of Palestinian teenagers carrying out terrorist attacks against Israeli civilians and members of Israel’s security forces in eastern Jerusalem has reappeared.  The Phenomenon of Palestinian Teen Terrorists
  • Le “riforme costituzionali” del nuovo governo israeliano: Perché ora? Cosa significano? E cosa accadrà in seguito? (IDI,  Amichai Cohen, Yuval Shany) Minister of Justice Levin presented a “legal reforms” package, which he described as the first in a planned series of such packages. These proposals are attracting criticism not only for their content but also for the unparalleled speed with which they are being advanced. We believe the substantive contents of the Levin and Rothman proposals are misconceived and dangerous, however, we support a process that would strive to build a broad political consensus around the “constitutional rules of the game.”. The New Israeli Government’s ‘Constitutional Law Reforms’: Why now? What do they mean? And what will happen next?
  • Israele. C’è un nuovo attore nella politica haredi: gli elettori (IDI, Eliyahu Berkovits). Is a deep tectonic shift taking place in ultra-Orthodox politics, as Haredi voters are finding their voice? There’s a New Player in Haredi Politics: Voters
  • Completare il processo costituzionale di Israele (IDI). Anchoring Israel’s commitment to the principles stated in its Declaration of Independence, completing a Bill of Rights, ensuring the judicial system’s independence, and bolstering the Knesset’s oversight and government’s efficiency. These are just a few of IDI’s proposals for a full constitutional arrangement for the State of Israel as it marks 75 years of independence. Completing Israel’s Constitutional Process
  • L’indipendenza dei tribunali e la sicurezza nazionale di Israele (INSS, Pnina Sharvit Baruch, Bell Yosef). The “judicial revolution” – a familiar term in Israeli discourse since the establishment of the 37th government – entails changes in the relations between the branches of government in Israel, aimed at undermining the independence of the judiciary, and raises concern for the democratic nature of the country. How will this influence Israel’s national security? Exploring this question, the article reaches the unequivocal conclusion: the proposed changes are liable to harm the State of Israel’s national security, both on an internal level, by upsetting national stability, and on an external level, particularly in efforts to rebuff the campaign against Israel in the international arena. The Independence of the Courts and Israel’s National Security
  • L’economia circolare globale aiuterà o danneggerà l’Africa? (IMANI). In Davos, many of the assembling elites had circular economy on their mind and lips, and the program was replete with its implications. “Circular economy” is a concept described by its supporters as the biggest economic opportunity since the industrial revolution. They peg its scale at $1 trillion by 2025 and $4.5 trillion by 2030. Will a global circular economy help or hurt Africa?
  • Cosa succederà dopo lo “scambio” del debito del Ghana? (IMANI). Word on the street is that Ghana’s drama-filled debt restructuring/exchange program (“DDE”) saw between 60% and 65% of all eligible extant marketable government securities (simply, “bonds”) tendered in by their holders in exchange for new bonds offering lower average interest and longer average repayment tenures. Investors accepted losses of between 19% and 47% instead of the 55% to 88% (depending on inflation & discount rate assumptions) they would have suffered under the government’s original December 5th 2022 plan.  What Next After Ghana’s Debt “Exchange”?
  • Tanzania. La strategia di ripresa post-COVID-19 e il Nationally Determined Contribution (SAIIA, Pius Yanda,
    Oswald Joseph MashindanoAbel Songole). In Tanzania, climate change has generally been tackled as a crosscutting issue in macro and sector policies, but the emergence of COVID-19 has created opportunities for a more mainstreamed approach. Tanzania’s Post-COVID-19 Recovery Strategy and the NDC
  • Il Burkina annuncia la fine ufficiale dell’operazione dell’esercito francese (The Defense Post). Burkina Faso announced on Sunday that operations by the French army in the jihadist-hit West African state were officially over, after bilateral relations soured in recent months. Burkina Announces French Army Operation Officially Over
  • Cina. Il partito spinge per l’educazione alla difesa nazionale per tutti (The Jamestown Foundation, John S. Van Oudenaren). Last September, a primary school in Lipu City, in Southwestern China’s Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, held a commemoration ceremony for the school’s designation as a “National Defense Education Model School” (国防教育示范学校) (Defense Times, September 15, 2022). Party Pushes National Defense Education for All
  • Alla ricerca dell’autosufficienza: Xi rivede il sistema di innovazione cinese (The Jamestown Foundation, Michael Laha). In 2016, President Xi Jinping visited Nanchang University in Jiangxi Province to learn more about the work of the National Silicon-based LED Engineering Technology Research Center (Jiangxi News, September 25, 2019). The center caught the attention of China’s leadership after it received first place in the 2015 National Technology Invention Prize for its work on “high-efficiency GaN-based blue-light emitting diodes on silicon-substrates” (State Council, January 8, 2016). In Search of Self-Reliance: Xi Overhauls China’s Innovation System
  • L’Indonesia e l’incerta scalata della catena del valore del nichel (The Interpreter, Kyunghoon Kim). Indonesia has historically had limited success with industrial policy. That may now be changing, with recent interventionist policies targeting the nickel sector suggesting initial success in developing downstream segments of the value chain. So successful have these industrial policies been that the government is planning to target other minerals in a similar fashion, despite the objections of major trading partners. Indonesia’s uncertain climb up the nickel value chain
  • Ritorno alla trilaterale Giacarta-Tokyo-Canberra (East Asia Forum, Andrew Levidis). Australia’s role in Asian regionalism has too often been a blind spot in public discourse about the country’s identity and future. For too long the narrative of Canberra’s role in its historic backyard has been characterised by the hard edge of necessity and interest — and often by indifference. Cold War Archives: Return to the Jakarta-Tokyo-Canberra Trilateral
  • Filippine. Riorganizzazione della sicurezza e ingiustizia sociale (East Asia Forum, Kevin Nielsen M Agojo). Barely a year into his administration, Philippine President Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr has undertaken a major reorganisation of state security institutions. Injustice persists amid security shake-up in the Philippines
  • È ora necessario un diverso tipo di minilateralismo per l’Asia e il Pacifico (East Asia Forum). There’s no question that the risks of political and economic fragmentation that come with great power rivalry in Asia make the task of re-energising Asia Pacific regionalism an urgent priority. A different kind of Asia Pacific minilateralism is now needed
  • La divergenza demografica in Asia (East Asia Forum, Andrew L Oros). The trend of Asian populations growing and moving to cities — providing cheap labour, demand for modern infrastructure and high economic growth — has reached a turning point with China now joining countries with shrinking populations in the region. Still, the ageing and shrinking countries of Northeast Asia are likely to continue to be Asia’s major powers for the foreseeable future, but will link in new ways to Asia’s still-growing states. Asia’s coming demographic divergence
  • La New Development Bank e i BRICS nella riforma della governance globale (East Asia Forum, Silvia Menegazzi). On 7 December 2022, Egypt ratified its participation in the New Development Bank (NDB) — a multilateral development bank (MDB) established in 2015 under the direct guidance of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). Egypt followed after the admission of Bangladesh, the United Arab Emirates and Uruguay in 2021. The NDB and BRICS in global governance reform
  • Ripensare il rischio nella competizione tra grandi potenze (CSIS, Peter C. Combe II Benjamin Jensen and Adrian Bogart). Between the spring of 2021 and winter of 2022, Russian military forces began to mass combat troops along Ukraine’s eastern border. In anticipation of a “potential imminent crisis,” U.S. European Command (EUCOM) increased intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance. During the same timeframe, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) increased the number of aerial incursions into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone to occur on a near daily basis—raising tensions regionally, particularly with the United States. These simultaneous crisis events present the DOD with unique strategic and operational questions: How do ongoing crises change operational plans? When should DOD leadership—from planners in Central Command (CENTCOM) managing a portfolio of options for countering Iran, to teams in U.S. Forces Korea seeking to deter North Korea—adjust their risk assessments? Rethinking Risk in Great Power Competition
  • Difesa definita dal software: algoritmi in guerra (IISS). Software and artificial intelligence (AI) are critical enablers of modern military operations, lead the evolution towards multi-domain operations, enhance interoperability among allied forces, and support the achievement of information superiority and decision-advantage against adversaries. Much of the functionality and performance offered by military equipment, from the F-35 Lightning II fighter jet and the Patriot missile-defence system, to the M1 Abrams tanks and the French GriffonJaguar and Serval armoured vehicles, is already software-defined. As software now drives most of many military platforms’ functionality, it is increasingly clear that it is not merely layered on to military hardware. Software is part and parcel of a weapons system. Software-defined Defence: Algorithms at War