LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Africa
(Babajide Oluwase – World Economic Forum) Africa is extremely vulnerable to climate shocks, altering the lives of millions across the continent, particularly in cities and other urban areas. Building resilience against the impact of climate change requires cities that can adapt, bounce back and thrive in the face of unforeseen shocks. By coming together, embracing Indigenous knowledge and empowering citizens, cities can become a beacon of resilience and prosperity.
Armenia – Azerbaijan – Turkey
(Vasif Huseynov – The Jamestown Foundation) Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s “Crossroads for Peace” initiative is struggling to gain any momentum largely due to the lack of direct consultations with Baku and Ankara. Azerbaijan and Türkiye are moving ahead with work on opening the Zangezur Corridor and trans-Iranian Aras Corridor, as Yerevan is dragging its feet. The Azerbaijani and Turkish governments’ focus on these alternatives likely means that Pashinyan’s project will not come to fruition anytime soon.
Yerevan’s ‘Crossroads for Peace’ Remains Elusive – Jamestown
AUKUS
(Megan Eckstein – Defense News) The new attack submarine design the United Kingdom and Australia will share through the AUKUS trilateral arrangement is in a “mature” state and will be finalized in the next year or two, leaders said this month. The third phase of the AUKUS submarine deal centers around Australia and the U.K designing, building and operating their own SSN-AUKUS attack subs, which will leverage American technology.
AUKUS sub design deemed ‘mature’ as nations debate top technologies (defensenews.com)
Climate Action / Energy Transition
1 – (Katie Fedosenko, Luciana Gutmann – World Economic Forum) The products of mining are essential components in the world’s drive to meet net zero. However, the mining industry recognizes that it also has a responsibility to manage its impacts. Explaining how the mining industry is resolving past and current issues is proving tough, but with more effective communications it can be done.
The mining sector must build trust in its energy transition | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
2 – (Mario Julien Díaz and Chelsea Gómez – World Resources Institute) Recent data shows that for the world to stay on track with limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F), fossil fuel operations must reduce their methane emissions by 75% by 2030. These findings were released just days before industry leaders and government representatives convened for the annual Global Methane Forum — a platform to share methane reduction techniques, policies, financing options and regulations and help ramp up methane mitigation efforts.
How to Ensure a Just Transition in Methane Mitigation | World Resources Institute (wri.org)
3 – (Clara Cho, Richard Waite and Raychel Santo – World Resources Institute) Meat and dairy are major contributors to climate change. Animal agriculture is responsible for more than three-quarters of agricultural land use, 11%-20% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and more than 30% of global methane emissions. Meat production is also a leading driver of recent tropical deforestation.
Does “Better” Meat Exist? It’s Complicated | World Resources Institute (wri.org)
4 – (Richard Waite, Jessica Zionts and Clara Cho – World Resources Institute) In places with high meat consumption, shifting diets toward plant-based foods can help food companies achieve climate and nature goals. There is also growing interest to accompany strategies that source “less meat” with strategies that source “better meat.” However, “better meat” lacks a clear definition and can refer to environmental, social, ethical, and/or economic attributes. The “better meat” concept is also often tied to alternative agricultural production systems.
Cybercrime
(Kevin Poireault – Infosecurity Magazine) Russia, Ukraine and China harbor the greatest cybercriminal threat, according to the first World Cybercrime Index (WCI).
Near East
1 – (Frederick Kempe – Atlantic Council) Forgive the Israelis if they aren’t in the mood to take the victory lap the White House has suggested to them, following the remarkable defense of their territory from an unprecedented Iranian barrage of more than three hundred explosive-laden drones, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles.
Iran and the de-escalation myth – Atlantic Council
2 – (Adi Kantor, Danny Citrinowicz, Chuck Freilich – The Institute for National Security Studies) After Iran’s leadership repeatedly threatened to retaliate for the assassination of its senior officer in Damascus, their reaction indeed finally came. On the night of April 13, a total of 320 missiles and UAVs carrying 60 tons of explosives were fired for the first time from Iran toward Israel. Their objective was clear: to destroy numerous targets in Israel, including military facilities. Israel successfully managed to intercept and destroy 99% of the weapons fired, thanks in large part to its strong alliance and cooperation with the United States, France, Great Britain, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. In today’s show, INSS researcher Adi Kantor sits down with Professor Chuck Freilich, a senior researcher at INSS, and Danny Citrinowicz, a research fellow in the Iran Program at INSS. Together they discuss the implications of this historic event on all fronts and actors. Will there be an Israeli response to Iran’s unprecedented attack? If so, what are the possible scenarios for such a response? What is the current position of the United States toward an Israeli response, and how will it affect US–Israeli relations? How are Iran’s proxies in the region expected to react? And what are the complications arising from the Israel–Hamas war?
After the Iranian Attack on Israel—What Can Be Expected? | INSS
3 – (Orit Perlov – The Institute for National Security Studies) Jordan’s stability is being undermined by mass demonstrations outside the Israeli embassy in Amman, organized by the National Forum for Supporting the Resistance and spearheaded by the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan. Iranian subversion, and the use of the Hashemite Kingdom for smuggling weapons and money to terrorist organizations in the West Bank are also contributing to the instability. Concern that this destabilizing of Jordan could lead to the deployment of Iran and its proxies along the Israel–Jordan border should spur Israel to avoid a public confrontation with the Jordanian royal house over its harsh criticism of Israel over the war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Israel should also be mindful of the kingdom’s existential needs and should send positive messages to Amman via clandestine channels.
An Evil Wind from the East? | INSS
4 – (Bat Chen Druyan Feldman, Arkady Mil-Man – The Institute for National Security Studies) The Iranian attack on Israel led to official condemnations from many countries around the world. However, the statement released by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs took a different stance. While Russia called on all parties to exercise restraint, their announcement was distinctly pro-Iranian.
Russia stands by Iran after attacking Israel | INSS
5 – (Robert Lemos – Dark Reading) As tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, cyberattacks and operations have become a standard part of the fabric of the geopolitical conflict. Last week, the head of Israel’s National Cyber Directorate blamed Iran and Hezbollah for “around the clock” cyberattacks against the country’s networks, government agencies, and businesses, tripling in intensity as Israel’s military operations continued against Hamas in Gaza. Following Quds Day — Iran’s commemoration of its pro-Palestinian Jerusalem Day on April 5 — dozens of denial-of-service attacks disrupted Israeli targets, according to data from cybersecurity firm Radware.
Middle East Cyber Ops Intensify, With Israel the Main Target (darkreading.com)
6 – (Paul Salem – Middle East Institute) With this latest escalation between Iran and Israel, the Middle East is entering a new era. What is new is not the tit-for-tat between the two states, but that this attack was launched from Iran proper, and only partly via proxies in Iraq and Yemen. Iran did use its territory for the attack against US bases in Iraq after the assassination of Gen. Qassem Soleimani, but using its territory for this attack on its major regional adversary, Israel, is a first.
First take on a new era in the Middle East | Middle East Institute (mei.edu)
7 – (Julien Barnes-Dacey – European Council on Foreign Relations) Overnight on 13 April, Iran launched more than 300 drones and ballistic missiles against Israel. This unprecedented direct attack came in response to Israel’s 1 April bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, which breached international law and killed seven people – including a senior IRGC general. Israel and its allies say that they intercepted 99 per cent of Iran’s strikes, though at least nine Iranian missiles struck two Israeli air bases. This gravely intensifies the risk of deepening conflict across the Middle East.
Direct destabilisation: Iran’s attack on Israel | ECFR
8 – (Hamzeh Hadad – European Council on Foreign Relations) Since Hamas’s attacks sparked the war in Gaza on 7 October 2023, a dangerous cycle of escalation has played out across the Middle East. Iran and its proxies – such as the Houthis in Yemen, Hizbullah in Lebanon, and Iraqi paramilitaries operating as the Islamic Resistance in Iraq – have exchanged attacks with Israel and the US military presence across the region. This threatens to erupt into a wider war, particularly since Iran’s unprecedented direct attack against Israel on 13 April 2024 in response to Israel’s bombing of the Iranian consulate in Syria on 1 April.
Proxy battles: Iraq, Iran, and the turmoil in the Middle East | ECFR
Quantum Computing
(Yehoshua Kalisky – The Institute for National Security Studies) The ideas behind quantum computing were first proposed in the 1980s, but their accelerated development in the last decade heralds the beginning of a new scientific and technological revolution. This is because quantum computing comprises a breakthrough in a field in which “regular“ computing has almost reached its physical limits. The computational power of a digital computer depends on the number of chips per unit of area, but this number is limited for technological and physical reasons. The computer and chip industries are pushing both their budgetary and research limits, striving to miniaturize chips, but it seems that it will be very difficult to increase the computing power of the existing computers by miniaturizing the basic computational units. The quantum computer offers a revolutionary alternative in the field of computation, with unlimited applications to civilian and military objectives.
Quantum Computing—The Future Is Here | INSS
Russia
1 – (Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) Moscow projects confidence with its continued offensive in Ukraine, but the Kremlin is worried about growing international efforts for peace talks and increased discontent at home. Turkish President Tayyip Recep Erdogan is taking steps to engage in this summer’s peace talks, while China has avoided announcing whether it will send a delegation to Switzerland. The Kremlin tries to focus on positive news but struggles to mask the growing discontent in Russian society as infrastructure crumbles, concerns about Islamist extremism grow, and a potential new wave of mobilization looms.
Multi-Prong Peace Offensive Pushes Putin Into Corner – Jamestown
2 – (Pavel Luzin – The Jamestown Foundation) Moscow now likely considers US commercial space assets as part of Washington’s military infrastructure following the Department of Defense’s issuance of the 2024 Commercial Space Integration Strategy. Russia’s military capabilities in space are highly asymmetric compared to US methods, and the Russian military is unlikely to achieve significant advantages in space surveillance. The Kremlin, despite sanctions, will continue to try to access the commercial space services provided by the United States, Europe, and China using third-party entities in other countries.
Russia’s Space Industry Struggles to Compete With US Commercial Space Strategy – Jamestown
Space
(Valerie Oosterveld – Centre for International Governance Innovation) There are two continuing discussions about the emerging possibilities of space mining: first, around extracting, refining and using such resources in space; and second, around the feasibility of getting space resources back to Earth.
Sudan
1 – (Ciarán Donnelly, Reva Dhingra – Lawfare) One year into the civil war in Sudan, the crisis facing the country and the region is only intensifying. Since the eruption of violence between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF)—rival factions of the country’s military—in April 2023, humanitarian needs have skyrocketed. More than 8.6 million people have been forced to flee, making it the largest displacement crisis in the world.
Sudan’s Crisis Requires a New Approach to International Aid | Lawfare (lawfaremedia.org)
2 – (Jehanne Henry – Middle East Institute) This week marks one year of Sudan’s brutal civil war, which ignited on the morning of April 15, 2023, when the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) started battling in the capital city of Khartoum. Far from silencing their guns, the two sides continue to fight fiercely to devastating effect; and with scant global attention or outcry, the Sudanese war has quickly become the world’s worst forgotten conflict.
3 – (Crisis Group) All-out fighting between rival branches of the armed forces has devastated Sudan. With millions facing famine, diplomats should push the two main belligerents much harder to accept a ceasefire – before the fragmentation in the two sides’ ranks dooms efforts to stop the carnage.
Sudan: A Year of War | Crisis Group
USA
1 – (Elizabeth Hoffman, Jaehyun Han, and Shivani Vakharia – Center for Strategic and International Studies) In February, the Senate passed a supplemental security assistance bill for Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan by a vote of 70 to 29. Despite passing with an overwhelming bipartisan majority in the Senate, the bill’s fate in the House has been fraught. Following Iran’s attacks against Israel over the weekend, the House is sure to put aid for Israel on the House floor this week. It is unclear if Speaker Mike Johnson will separate the aid into two or three separate packages or combine it into one larger package similar to the Senate bill. The House proposal will undoubtedly deviate from the Senate-passed bill. Regardless, the Senate’s version will still serve as the baseline for the House proposal, so it is worth a closer examination of what it contains.
The Path Ahead for Supplemental Security Assistance: Ukraine and Israel in the Balance (csis.org)
2 – (Adam Chan, David Rader – Lawfare) In the era of strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China (PRC), U.S. policymakers are largely united in expressing the need for a whole-of-government response to economic and technological challenges. Despite this bipartisan imperative, a mandate to address economic statecraft is entirely absent from the mission of numerous federal government agencies and offices—from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to the Department of Labor—that could play a major role in America’s response to the PRC’s activities. Thus, the question of how to fully leverage the president’s entire Cabinet to meet economic statecraft imperatives or respond using the entire executive branch remains an enduring challenge.
Strategic Rulemaking for Economic Security and Statecraft | Lawfare (lawfaremedia.org)
3 – (Manal Cheema, Ariel Sarandinaki – Lawfare) On Jan. 16, four of the U.S. Navy’s unmanned surface vessel (USV) prototypes (meaning a vessel that can operate without a human crew) recently returned from operations in the Western Pacific. Over several months in late 2023, these vessels—named Ranger, Mariner, Sea Hunter, and Sea Hawk—made port calls to Japan, Guam, Australia, and other nations, as part of a multilateral exercise to test the operation of unmanned systems.
The Warship’s Remote Operator: Who Is the Captain Now? | Lawfare (lawfaremedia.org)
4 – (Peter W. Singer – Defense One) In just the last few months, the battlefield has undergone a transformation like never before, with visions from science fiction finally coming true. Robotic systems have been set free, authorized to destroy targets on their own. Artificial intelligence systems are determining which individual humans are to be killed in war, and even how many civilians are to die along with them. And making all this the more challenging, this frontier has been crossed by America’s allies.
The AI revolution is already here – Defense One
5 – (Patrick Tucker – Defense One) It was a tale of two cities this weekend. On Sunday morning, people in Tel Aviv went about their lives largely as usual despite the 300 drones and missiles that Iran had fired at Israel just hours before. U.S., UK,and Israeli forces destroyed nearly all of the projectiles. But more than a thousand miles due north, Ukrainians in Kharkiv mourned seven people killed over the weekend, the latest to die in a Russian bombardment campaign that has taken the lives of thousands of Ukrainian civilians and destroyed civilian infrastructure. Both attackers used Iranian-made Shahed 136 drones. The different outcomes reflect factors practical and political.
Why we can shoot down Iranian drones over Israel but not Ukraine – Defense One
USA – Japan – Philippines
(Erin L. Murphy and Gregory B. Poling – Center for Strategic and International Studies) President Joe Biden and his counterparts, Kishida Fumio and Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., held the first-ever U.S.-Japan-Philippines trilateral summit on April 11. It was a manifestation of the importance of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy, which emphasizes both military and economic security in cooperation with partners and allies. The Biden administration has emphasized that both economic and military support are necessary to ensure deep and resilient partnerships. That is especially true in this case, as the three leaders pledged to work toward a shared vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific “for decades to come.”
A ‘New Trilateral Chapter’ for the United States, Japan, and the Philippines (csis.org)
Venezuela
(Phil Gunson – Crisis Group) Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is tilting the July presidential election in his favour, in violation of the 2023 Barbados accord. While Maduro should face consequences, the U.S. should take a calibrated approach to the reimposition of sanctions.
Seeking the Best from a Skewed Poll: Hard Choices for Venezuela | Crisis Group
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
